The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, put out its Week 3-4 outlook on Friday, Nov. 6, and the period it covers runs from Nov. 21 to Dec. 4, which takes in Thanksgiving on Nov. 26. The outlook favors above-normal temperatures for the West Coast, the northern tier and the Northeast, and below-normal temperatures for much of Texas and the Four Corners.
An outlook is not a forecast for a single day. It describes which way the odds lean for an average across two weeks, measured against the 1991-2020 normals, so a mild lean can still include a cold morning or two. Here is how the pattern breaks down by region, and why talk of a polar vortex has not changed the outlook.
The Mild Lean Along the Coasts and the Northern Tier
According to the CPC discussion, above-normal temperatures are favored for Alaska, the West Coast, the northern tier, the Great Lakes, the Northeast and Hawaii, with the highest probabilities in the Northeast. For travelers heading out of those regions, an earlier look at Thanksgiving week weather in the Southeast and the northern Plains fills in the shorter-range picture, and a roundup of carry-on suitcases for Thanksgiving trips suits flyers packing light.
The CPC points to a persistent El Niño as the dominant influence, with above-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Its October diagnostic discussion says a strong to very strong El Niño is likely to last through January-March 2027. A broader El Niño winter outlook had already leaned warmer from the Midwest to the East Coast, and families sorting out luggage can compare three-piece luggage sets for holiday trips.
Texas and the Four Corners Run Cooler
The same outlook favors below-normal temperatures for the Four Corners region and much of Texas. The CPC expects below-average heights across the southern United States, along with a ridge over central and eastern Canada.
Texas and the Four Corners are the exceptions to an otherwise mild lean. Drivers planning long holiday trips can brush up with a list of car checks before a Thanksgiving road trip, and cooks can see how an air fryer or toaster oven frees up the main oven.
A Wetter South and a Southeast That May Turn Colder Late
For precipitation, the CPC favors above-average totals for the southern half of the country, with the highest odds from the Southeast up the Eastern Seaboard into southern New England. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Dynamical models show a stronger signal in the Northwest, while statistical guidance favors the Southwest.
The Southeast is only slightly favored to run above normal. The CPC notes that some dynamical models suggest colder air could move in during Week 4, which would fall in the final days of the outlook window. Travelers weighing a trip can read about travel blunders that turn a vacation stressful, and anyone leaving a house empty over the holiday can use a checklist of things to do before leaving the house empty.
Why the Early Stratospheric Warming Is Not a Deep Freeze Signal
The CPC’s discussion says an unusually early sudden stratospheric warming event is underway over the Arctic. Such events are linked to a weakening polar vortex and a possible negative Arctic Oscillation. Dynamical models show this one as relatively short-lived, and forecasters expect it to limit Arctic air outbreaks into the United States during the outlook period.
The CPC also describes strong troughing south of the Aleutians as part of the expected pattern, and says an active Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Indian Ocean is not expected to drive a significant response across the middle latitudes.
The outlook does not lean toward a widespread freeze. A separate 6-10 and 8-14 day discussion issued Nov. 8 shows a different picture for mid-November, with above-normal temperatures likely from the Rockies to the Atlantic coast and near to below normal slightly favored for much of the West.
Dates to Watch Before Thanksgiving Day
The next Week 3-4 update is due Friday, Nov. 13. The daily 8-14 day outlook, which was updated Nov. 9 for Nov. 17 to 23, will reach Thanksgiving Day itself in its Nov. 12 issue. Federal holiday listings from the Office of Personnel Management confirm the holiday falls on Thursday, Nov. 26.
Two points keep the outlook in perspective. A temperature lean says nothing about rain, snow or wind on a given travel day. Readers planning flights, drives or an outdoor meal can treat the outlook as background and rely on the local National Weather Service forecast once the holiday is within a week.
Until then, the map shows only a lean. A mild lean for the West Coast, northern tier and Northeast, cooler odds for Texas, and a wetter South are the pieces to track as the forecast firms up.
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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
Image: Valiphotos – CC0/Wikimedia Commons