The post The Reverse Flynn Effect: Are We Really Getting Less Intelligent? This Year first appeared on Crafting Your Home.
Every few years, a headline appears that taps into a familiar worry: are people losing something important? The phrase “reverse Flynn effect” has become shorthand for a troubling idea: intelligence is declining, and newer generations may be less capable than those before them.
But the reality behind the headline is more complicated, and in some ways more interesting.
The reverse Flynn effect refers to reports that the long rise in average scores on certain cognitive tests the pattern known as the Flynn effect has slowed, stopped, or reversed in some populations. It does not mean that everyone is becoming less intelligent, and researchers have not found one simple explanation for why some test scores have changed.
The deeper question is not whether humanity is suddenly becoming “dumber.” It is why the environments shaping how people learn, reason, and perform on cognitive tests appear to be changing in different places and in different ways.
Norway’s data showed a real reversal, but it was not a simple story.
One of the strongest examples of a reverse Flynn effect comes from Norway, where researchers examined large-scale military conscription testing data.
In a 2018 study published in PNAS, researchers Bernt Bratsberg and Ole Rogeberg analyzed cognitive-test results from Norwegian male birth cohorts born between 1962 and 1991. The dataset wasn’t based on a small group of volunteers; it came from national administrative records involving hundreds of thousands of men tested around ages 18 or 19.
The pattern they found was striking. Average scores increased among earlier cohorts, rising from 99.5 for men born in 1962 to 102.3 for those born in 1975. After that, scores declined, reaching 99.4 among the 1989 birth cohort, followed by a small increase to 99.7 among those born in 1991.
That pattern suggests a genuine change in test performance across generations in Norway. But it does not automatically mean that people’s overall abilities, creativity, knowledge, or potential have declined. Cognitive tests measure particular skills under particular conditions, and many parts of life can influence those conditions.
The sibling comparison changed the conversation.
One of the most important parts of the Norwegian research came from comparing brothers born in different years.
Instead of only comparing unrelated people from different generations, Bratsberg and Rogeberg looked at changes within families. The researchers found that the same general rise and later decline appeared among brothers as it did across the broader population.
The study estimated that between 1975 and 1991, scores declined by about 0.33 IQ points per year within families, very close to the 0.34-point yearly decline observed across families.
This finding matters because it makes some explanations less convincing as the main cause of the Norwegian decline. If the change were mostly driven by differences between families, such as who was having children or broad genetic changes across the population, the pattern would not be expected to appear so clearly among siblings.
The researchers concluded that large changes in cognitive-test scores can happen because of environmental factors that vary over time. However, they also emphasized that their data could not identify the exact environmental causes behind the shift.
In other words, the research points toward changing circumstances, but it does not provide a single culprit.
The global picture is uneven, not a universal decline.
The phrase “everyone is getting less intelligent” makes for a dramatic headline, but it does not match the research landscape.
Cognitive trends differ by country, generation, age group, and the type of mental skill being measured.
A 2018 review by James R. Flynn and Michael Shayer reported declines in Nordic countries when they projected trends after 1995 over several decades. At the same time, they noted different patterns elsewhere, including continued gains in the United States through 2014 and gains in South Korea.
The picture is less like a single downward line and more like a collection of different paths. Some societies have seen declines in certain measures, while others have continued to improve in some abilities.
Even within one country, results may not move in the same direction.
A large U.S. study by Elizabeth Dworak, William Revelle, and David Condon examined data from 394,378 adults who participated in the online SAPA Project between 2006 and 2018. The researchers found patterns consistent with a reverse Flynn effect in some areas, including composite ability, matrix reasoning, and letter- and number-series performance. However, three-dimensional rotation scores increased from 2011 to 2018.
As Dworak noted in Northwestern University’s report, the results did not tell a simple story because different abilities moved in different directions.
What researchers have not proved
The appeal of the reverse Flynn effect is that it invites an easy explanation. People often look for a single modern cause, whether it is technology, changing education, or broader social shifts.
But the research does not establish those conclusions.
The Norwegian study does not prove that phones, social media, screen time, or the internet caused declining scores. It also does not prove that education has worsened, although changes in educational experiences or quality are among possible environmental explanations researchers consider.
It does not show that immigration is the main explanation for Norway’s reversal, and it does not show that genetic changes are driving the decline.
The U.S. study also requires caution because the participants came from an online, self-selected sample rather than a nationally representative intelligence-testing program.
The research does show that scores on certain cognitive measures can change across generations. Those changes appear to be influenced by environments, but researchers are still working to understand exactly which parts of modern life matter most.
A more thoughtful way to read the story
The reverse Flynn effect is not evidence that one generation is simply less capable than another. It is evidence that the relationship between people and their environments is constantly changing.
The same societies that shape learning, problem-solving, and attention also shape how those abilities show up on tests. When scores rise or fall, researchers are not just asking what happened to intelligence; they are asking what changed around people.
The most compelling mystery is not whether the next generation is destined to be less smart. It is why the conditions influencing how people think, learn, and demonstrate their abilities are shifting unevenly around the world.
The reverse Flynn effect is not a scientific permission slip to dismiss younger generations. It reminds us that human ability is shaped by a complicated mix of experiences, environments, and opportunities and that the full story is still being written.
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